- 10 August 2020
I am currently working on a book chapter about “Sozialstruktur und Wahlverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland – Konvergenz, Divergenz oder Persistenz?” (Social Structure and Voting Behaviour in East and West Germany – Convergence, Divergence, or Persistence?). In this context I found the remarkable result shown in the following figure.
- 13 May 2020
Our paper on “Multilevel Analysis with Few Clusters: Improving Likelihood-based Methods” is now published as an open access article by the British Journal of Political Science (Elff, Heisig, Schaeffer, and Shikano 2020), along with a comment by Daniel Stegmueller (Stegmueller 2020) and a response by us (Elff, Heisig, Schaeffer, and Shikano 2020).
view() provides a generic interface to the GUI function
View() in base R and RStudio. It makes it possible to extend it to
data objects of the classes “
descriptions”, and “
A method for “
data.set” objects allows to transfer these
objects more easiliy into the “tidyverse”, i.e. facilitates the use of
functions from these package ecosystem on data sets imported or created with
as_haven() function translates “
data.set” objects into
“tibbles” with that extra information that the “haven” package adds to
“tibbles” imported with the help of that package. This should allow to view
and post-process data imported with memisc more or less the same way as if
the data were imported with “haven”.
- 16 April 2019
Using data from the European Social Survey (ESS) I examine the impact of social class on electoral turnout, the support for left and social democratic parties and for right-wing populist parties. I find that the impact of class on voting for leftist and social democratic parties seems to have disappeared in some countries. Yet there is clear evidence that class has an impact on electoral turnout and on support for right-wing populist parties. The class-pattern of support for left/social-democratic parties tends to be weak in countries where electoral turnout has a particular strong class pattern. Further, changes in turnout affect left and social democratic parties more than other parties.
A new release 0.99.17.1 of my package memisc has been published on CRAN. The new release has the following improvements:
mtable() results now include a legend for significance symbols.
codeplan() function creates a data frame that describes the
structure of an
"data.set" object. Such
“codeplans” can be used to copy the “item structure” or code plan from
one object to another.
- 01 February 2019
A small number of top-level units in multilevel analysis is a problem that has worried comparativists for quite some time. In a paper that is forthcoming in the British Journal of Political Science (Elff, Heisig, Schaeffer, and Shikano 2020) my co-authors and I show that this problem can be satisfactorily addressed by only moderate modifications of common techniques of statistical inference: using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) instead of (ML) estimators (Patterson, and Thompson 1971) and by avoiding the assumption of asymptotic normality for the sampling distribution of coefficient estimates and assume a t-distribution instead. (Satterthwaite 1941; Kenward, and Roger 1997)
- 30 March 2018
An article entitled “Method Factors in Democracy Indicators” just has appeared in Politics and Governance. It analyses the degree to which democracy indicators are influenced by the orginisation that created them. It shows that the origin of indicators in particular affects the detection of change in regimes.
- 12 December 2017
A handbook chapter on “Ideology and Electoral Choice” has appeared in The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion.
It discusses various conceptions of ideology – from the history of ideas to (social) psychology and the empirical evidence about the influence of ideological orientations on voting behaviour.
- 07 March 2017
The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, contains a contribution of the role of relgion in shaping electoral behaviour, authored by Sigrid Roßteutscher and me is now available from Sage Publications.
- 14 January 2017
German Politics published an article with the title “Social Cleavages and Electoral Behaviour in Long-Term Perspective: Alignment without Mobilisation?” as part of a special issue of the German Bundestag election of 2013.
- 09 April 2016
A chapter entitled “Parteiwahl und Nichtwahl: Zur Rolle sozialer Konfliktlinien” has appeared in Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl von 2013 (ed. by Harald Schoen and Bernhard Wessels) and is now available from Springer.
- 27 June 2015
At the 5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association I had the opportunity to present a paper entitled “The Crisis of Social Democracy and the Political Demobilisation of the Working Class in Germany”. In this paper I analyse the dual decline of turnout in Germany and of the support for the German Social Democratic Party (SPD). I show that both changes are linked and concentrated in a core group of SPD supporters, the manual working class.
- 12 June 2015
At the Session of the AK “Wahlen und politische Einstellungen (the German specialist group on election, electoral behaviour and political attitudes) I had the opportunity to present a paper on split-ticket voting in Germany. In this paper I find that there is more strategic voting in the direct candidate votes than in the list votes, but that most split-ticket voting appears to be non-strategic.
- 05 June 2015
In Berlin, at the Manifesto Project User Conference I presented a paper entitled “Challenges in Tracking Parties’ Positions in Multi-dimensional Policy Spaces by Manifesto Project data: A Dynamic Idealpoint Model and its Extensions”. In this paper I discuss way of reconstructing political positions from coded political texts based on an idealpoint model (introduced in a publication of mine in Political Analysis) as well as some extension of this model that address some challenges, such as different acuity of political aims.
- 05 November 2014
A chapter on estimation techniques has appeared in the edited volume Regression Analysis and Causal Inference, edited by Henning Best and Christof Wolf and published by Sage. A companion website is here.
- 05 November 2014
Estimates (or more correctly: predictions) of parties’ positions in multiple dimensions in different countries, spanning the decades from 1945 (1920 for the USA) to 2010 is now available here on my website.
- 21 June 2014
In a recent article published in AJPS it is claimed that Bayesian estimators have a superior performance in the estimation of the influence of group-level covariates, especially if the number of groups/clusters is small. In the paper presented at EPSA, we show that the problems addressed by Bayesian techniques can also be adequately addressed by a frequentist technique, restricted maximum likelihood, without the problems involved in Bayesian estimation, such as the computational cost and the need to select an appropriate prior.
- 06 April 2014
A paper entitled Separating Tactical from Sincere Voting: A Finite-Mixture Discrete-Choice Modelling Approach was presented at the Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association 2014 in Chicago, Ill. It presents a novel approach to uncover tactical voting from responses in electoral survey studies. The basic idea is that the distribution of observed voting decisions is a finite mixture of non-tactical (aka sincere) and tactical voting decisions, where tactical voting decisions are characterised by choosing - in stead of the full choice set - from a restricted consideration set. This restricted consideration set then contains only those alternatives (e.g. parties’ candidates) that are considered viable by the voter in her respective constituency or voting district.
- 08 September 2013
A paper entitled Information Flows, Expectation Formation, and Tactical Voting was presented at the ECPR General Conference 2013 at the Université de Bordeaux. It examines how results in the previous election (at constituency level) and parties’ current popularity (as expressed in their performance in opinion polls) influence the formation of expectations about parties’ chances at the constituency level and at the national level and how these expectations affect the intention to vote tactically.
- 08 April 2013
A paper entitled “On the Distinctiveness of Party Families” was presented at the 2014 General Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association. In this paper I describe the average positions (and the development of these) of the party families commonly known in the comparative study of European parties. In this paper I distinguish between three major political dimensions:
Traditionalist vs. Permissive
- 27 January 2013
A paper on “A Dynamic State-Space Model of Coded Political Texts” has been published as advance access article in Political Analysis. Accompanying this article, there is a data set with positions of parties in the economic and social policy spaces, reconstructed from Comparative Manifestos Project data using the method in the article. The data set is available from the Political Analysis dataverse. I will make a more extensive data set, suitable for multiple imputations and the like, available on my website in the near future. Here is a picture that shows what this method can do:
- 03 April 2012
An article about “Bounded volatility in the Dutch electoral battlefield: A panel study on the structure of changing vote intentions in the Netherlands during 2006–2010” is now available for advance access from the journal Acta Politica.