Posted in 2013

Expectation formation and tactical voting in the UK


A paper entitled Information Flows, Expectation Formation, and Tactical Voting was presented at the ECPR General Conference 2013 at the Université de Bordeaux. It examines how results in the previous election (at constituency level) and parties’ current popularity (as expressed in their performance in opinion polls) influence the formation of expectations about parties’ chances at the constituency level and at the national level and how these expectations affect the intention to vote tactically.

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Average political positions of party families


A paper entitled “On the Distinctiveness of Party Families” was presented at the 2014 General Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association. In this paper I describe the average positions (and the development of these) of the party families commonly known in the comparative study of European parties. In this paper I distinguish between three major political dimensions:

Economic Left-Right

Traditionalist vs. Permissive

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Method for reconstructing political positions from political texts published in Political Analysis


A paper on “A Dynamic State-Space Model of Coded Political Texts” has been published as advance access article in Political Analysis. Accompanying this article, there is a data set with positions of parties in the economic and social policy spaces, reconstructed from Comparative Manifestos Project data using the method in the article. The data set is available from the Political Analysis dataverse. I will make a more extensive data set, suitable for multiple imputations and the like, available on my website in the near future. Here is a picture that shows what this method can do:

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