Publications and papers

Peer reviewed research articles

Elff, Martin, Marlin Schaeffer, Jan Paul Heisig, and Susumu Shikano. 2019. “Multilevel Analysis with Few Clusters: Improving Likelihood-based Methods to Provide Unbiased Estimates and Accurate Inference”. British Journal of Political Science (accepted for publication February 2019).

Elff, Martin and Sebstian Ziaja. 2018. “Method Factors in Democracy Indicators”. Politics and Governance 6(1): 92-104.

Elff, Martin and Sigrid Roßteutscher. 2017. “Social Cleavages and Electoral Behaviour in Long-Term Perspective: Alignment without Mobilisation?”. German Politics 26(1): 12-34.

Elff, Martin. 2013. “A Dynamic State-Space Model of Coded Political Texts”. Political Analysis 21(2): 217-232.

van der Meer, Tom, Rozemarijn Lubbe, Erika van Elsas, Martin Elff, and Wouter van der Brug. 2012. “Bounded Volatility in the Dutch Electoral Battlefield: A Panel Study on the Structure of Changing Vote Intentions in the Netherlands during 2006–2010”. Acta Politica 47(4): 333-355.

Elff, Martin and Sigrid Roßteutscher. 2011. “Stability or Decline? Class, Religion and the Vote in Germany”. German Politics 20(1): 111-131.

Elff, Martin. 2009. “Social Divisions, Party Positions, and Electoral Behaviour”. Electoral Studies 28(2): 297-308.

Elff, Martin, Thomas Gschwend, and Ron J. Johnston. 2008. “Ignoramus, Ignorabimus? On Uncertainty in Ecological Inference”. Political Analysis 16(1): 70-92.

Elff, Martin. 2007. “Social Structure and Electoral Behavior in Comparative Perspective: The Decline of Social Cleavages in Western Europe Revisited”. Perspectives on Politics 5(2): 277-294.

van Deth, Jan W. and Martin Elff. 2004. “Politicisation, Economic Development, and Political Interest in Europe”. European Journal of Political Research 43(3): 477-508.

Book

Elff, Martin. 2006. Politische Ideologien, soziale Konflikte und Wahlverhalten: Die Bedeutung politischer Angebote der Parteien für den Zusammenhang zwischen sozialen Merkmalen und Parteipräferenzen in zehn westeuropäischen Demokratien. Baden-Baden: Nomos. ISBN: 978-3-8329-2091-3

Book contributions

Elff, Martin and Nadine Meidert. 2019 (forthcoming). “Soziale Identifikation vs. running tally: Der Einfluss des politischen Kontextes auf die Ausformung einer Parteiidentifikation”. To appear in Identität, Identifikation, Ideologie, ed. by Evelyn Bytzek, Heiko Giebler, and Markus Steinbrecher. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.

Elff, Martin. 2019. “Probleme der Messung politischen Wissens im internationalen Vergleich”. 71-93 in Politisches Wissen, ed. by Bettina Westle and Markus Tausenpfund. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.

Elff, Martin. 2018. “Die Rekonstruktion der relativen Einkommensentwicklung sozialer Gruppen auf der Grundlage von gruppierten Einkommensangaben”. 289-307 in Die deutsche Gesellschaft im Spiegel der Allgemeinen Bevölkerungsumfrage Sozialwissenschaften (ALLBUS), ed. by Pascal Siegers, Sonja Schulz, and Oshrat Hochman. Berlin: Springer.

Elff, Martin. 2017. “Ideology and Electoral Choice”. 136-145 in The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion, ed. by Justin Fisher, Edward Fieldhouse, Mark Franklin, Rachel Gibson, Marta Cantijoch, and Christopher Wlezien. London: Routledge.

Elff, Martin and Sigrid Roßteutscher. 2017. “Religion”. 199-219 in The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, ed. by Kai Arzheimer, Locelyn Evans, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. London: Sage.

Elff, Martin and Sigrid Roßteutscher. 2016. “Parteiwahl und Nichtwahl: Zur Rolle sozialer Konfliktlinien”. 45-69 in Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlaß der Bundestagswahl von 2013, ed. by Harald Schoen und Bernhard Weßels. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.

Elff, Martin. 2014. “Estimation Techniques: OLS and MLE”. 7-30 in Regression Analysis and Causal Inference, ed. by Henning Best and Christoph Wolf. London: Sage.

Elff, Martin. 2013. “Social Divisions and Political Choices in Germany, 1980–2006”. 277-308 in Political Choice Matters: Explaining the Strength of Class and Religious Cleavages in Cross-National Perspective, ed. by Geoffrey Evans and Nan Dirk der Graaf. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Elff, Martin and Spyros Kosmidis. 2013. “Umfragen, Wählererwartungen und strategisches Wählen: Ein deutsch-britischer Vergleich”. 533-552 in Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl von 2009, ed. by Bernhard Weßels, Oscar W. Gabriel, and Harald Schoen. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.

Elff, Martin. 2012. “Germany”. 51-72 in Political Parties and Democracy: Contemporary Western Europe and Asia, ed. by Takashi Inoguchi and Jean Blondel. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.

van der Meer, Tom, Rozemarijn Lubbe, Erika van Elsas, Martin Elff, and Wouter van der Brug. 2012. “Los zand of geemancipeerde burgers? Bewegingen op de Nederlandse kiezermarkt 2006–2010”. 211-228 in Ontwikkelingen in het marktonderzoek: Jaarboek Markt Onderzoek Associatie, ed. by A.E. Bronner et al. Haarlem: Spaar en Hout.

Elff, Martin. 2009. “Auswertungsprobleme mit den Daten des Comparative Manifestos Project”. 310-330 in Datenwelten. Datenerhebung und Datenbestände in der Politikwissenschaft, ed. by Joachim Behnke, Natalie Behnke, and Kai-Uwe Schnapp. Baden-Baden: Nomos.

Elff, Martin and Sigrid Roßteutscher. 2009. “Die Entwicklung sozialer Konfliktlinien in den Wahlen von 1994 bis 2005”. 307-327 in Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005, ed. by Oscar W. Gabriel, Bernhard Weßels, and Jürgen W. Falter. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.

Elff, Martin. 2006. “Nichtparametrische und semiparametrische Regressionsverfahren”. 217-226 in Methoden der Politikwissenschaft, ed. by Joachim Behnke, Thomas Gschwend, Delia Schindler, and Kai-Uwe Schnapp. Baden-Baden: Nomos.

Elff, Martin. 2005. “Wertorientierungen und Parteipräferenz”. 309-338 in Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2002, ed. by Jürgen W. Falter, Oscar W. Gabriel, and Bernhard Weßels. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.

Elff, Martin. 2002. “Parteiensystem, Sozialstruktur und Wahlabsicht”. 279-313 in Das Ende der politisierten Sozialstruktur?, ed. by Frank Brettschneider, Jan W. van Deth, and Edeltraud Roller. Opladen: Leske + Budrich.

Elff, Martin. 2000. “Neue Mitte oder alte Lager? Welche Rolle spielen sozioökonomische Konfliktlinien für das Wahlergebnis von 1998?”. 67-92 in Die Republik auf dem Weg zur Normalität? Wahlverhalten und politische Einstellungen nach acht Jahren Einheit, ed. by Jan W. van Deth, Hans Rattinger, and Edeltraud Roller. Opladen: Leske + Budrich.

Research Reports

van Deth, Jan W. and Martin Elff. 2001. “Politicisation and Political Interest in Europe: A Multi-Level Approach”. MZES Working Paper 36. Mannheim: Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung.

van Deth, Jan W. and Martin Elff. 2000. “Political Involvement and Apathy in Europe 1973-1998”. MZES Working Paper 33. Mannheim: Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung.

Work in progress

(Note: dates mark last version or prospective publication date)

Elff, Martin. 2019. “Class Voting, Working Class Turnout and the Rise of Populism”. In preparation for the 4th International ESS Conference, 15-17 April 2019 at the University of Mannheim.

Elff, Martin. 2019. “Data Management with R: A Guide for Social Scientists”. Book contract with Sage, London.

Elff, Martin, Sigrid Roßteutscher, and Christof Wolf. 2019. “From De-alignment to Re-alignment? The Transformation of Social Cleavages in Germany”. In preparation for an upcoming volume “The Changing German Voter” edited by Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, Sigrid Roßteutscher, Harald Schoen, Bernhard Weßels and Christof Wolf and published by Oxford University Press.

Elff, Martin. 2018. “Consideration Sets and Finite Mixtures: A New Approach to the Analysis of Strategic Voting”. Presented at the First Annual Conference of the Political Methodology Group of the Political Studies Association, 27. Juni 2016, University College London; DAGStat 2016 Gemeinsame Tagung der Deutschen Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Statistik, 14.-18. März 2016, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Association, 3-6 April 2014, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, Illinois (under a different title).

Elff, Martin. 2018. “Strategic Voting and Ticket-Splitting in Mixed Electoral Systems: A Finite-Mixture Approach Applied to the Case of Germany”. Presented at the ECPR General Conference, 23-25 August 2018, Universität Hamburg; European Political Science Association 8th Annual Conference, 21-23 June 2018, Schloss Schönbrunn Apothekertrakt, Vienna.

Elff, Martin. 2017. “How Should We Extract Parties’ Political Positions from their Manifestos? Problems of Conventional Approaches and their Solution Based on a Dynamic Idealpoint Model”. Presented at European Political Science Association 7th Annual Conference, 22-24 June 2017, Palazzo delle Stelline, Milano; Annual Conference of the Political Methodology Group of the Political Studies Association, 13 January 2017, University of Oxford; Manifesto Project User Conference, 4-5 June 2015, WZB Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung.

Elff, Martin. 2017. “Party Families Beyond Left and Right: Contrasting Conceptions of Party Ideology”. Presented at European Political Science Association 7th Annual Conference, 22-24 June 2017, Palazzo delle Stelline, Milano.

Christian, Breunig, Martin Elff, and Samuel G. Workman. 2016. “The Dynamics of Policy Change”. Presented at the European Political Science Association 6th Annual Conference, 23-25 June 2016, Square-Brussels Meeting Centre, Brussels.

Elff, Martin, Spyros Kosmidis, and Andras Murr. 2016. “Campaign Dynamics and Mixed Incentives for Strategic Voting:The Case of the UK Parliamentary Elections of 2010”. Presented at the European Political Science Association 6th Annual Conference, 23-25 June 2016, Square-Brussels Meeting Centre, Brussels; EPOP (Elections Public Opinion and Parties) Annual Conference, 9-12 September 2016, University of Kent, Canterbury.

Elff, Martin. 2015. “The Crisis of Social Democracy and the Political Demobilisation of the Working Class in Germany”. Presented at the European Political Science Association 5th Annual General Conference, 25-27 June 2015, Schloss Schönbrunn Apothekertrakt and Springer Schlößl, Vienna.