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:title: Strategic Voting and Ticket-Splitting in Germany

.. bibsource:: ../papers.bib
.. pub-details:: elff:finite.mixture.splitting
        
.. abstract::

   Why voters split their votes between elections at different (state vs
   federal) levels or between ballots in mixed dual vote electoral systems
   has been subject of a debate for several years now. A natural explanation
   is that ticket-splitting in mixed electoral systems is the result of
   various voting strategies: wasted-vote avoidance in the plurality vote on
   the ballot, threshold insurance in the proportional vote on the ballot,
   or a combination of both. Uncovering such voting strategies however has
   posed a considerable challenge, as they cannot be observed directly.

   Despite the importance of tactical voting, no consensus has yet been
   reached on how to measure it. The proposed paper applies a finite-mixture
   discrete choice model to the case of ticket-splitting in the context of
   the mixed electoral system of Germany. Based on the German Election
   studies of 2009 through 2017 it derives the proportion of
   ticket-splitting that can be attributed to indifference between parties,
   wasted-vote avoidance, the intention to bring about a preferred
   coalition, or the expression of a rank-order between the first- and
   second-most preferred party.

.. dropdown:: View paper version presented at ECPR 2018
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